How does the Texas freeze coming next week compare to the historic freeze of February 2021?

By now, you’ve read our headlines, and you know that an arctic outbreak will be moving into Texas early next week. If that brings back memories of the weeklong February 2021 Texas freeze, you’re not alone. A series of freezing rain and ice storms, coupled with snowfall as far south as Houston, nearly three years ago knocked out power for millions and was blamed for the deaths of hundreds of Texans. That winter event left many in Texas with a degree of post-traumatic stress disorder about all freezing weather since then, but to help put minds at ease about next week, let’s start with some weather science. The upcoming Texas deep freeze is going to be extremely cold, but we have no reason to believe that it’s going to be a repeat of three years ago. Let’s compare that previous event to what is in the forecast for early next week.

Will it be quite as cold? While next week’s arctic blast will bring the coldest air Texas has gotten so far this winter, it does not appear to be quite as cold as the 2021 winter outbreak. Houston’s lowest temperature in 2021 was 13 degrees. By Tuesday of next week, the forecast low is about 10 degrees warmer, in the low to mid-20s. It’s a similar story across much of the state. In San Antonio, the coldest temperature reached in 2021 was 9 degrees. It was only the ninth time in recorded history that temps had reached the single digits in the Alamo City. This time around, the coldest projected temperature is 18 degrees, which is expected Tuesday. Out in West Texas, Midland-Odessa fell all the way to 2 degrees below zero back in 2021. Next week, they’ll bottom out near 12 degrees. How long will the cold last? The February 2021 freeze was likely so memorable because temps stayed below freezing for record-setting long periods. This time around, temperatures are not expected to stay below freezing for nearly as long. Houston’s low temperatures will fall below freezing for a few days in a row, but afternoon highs are expected to stay above the freezing mark each day.