Republicans rethink abortion strategy after bruising midterms

Republicans are recalibrating their messaging on abortion after Democrats successfully used the issue to galvanize their base and win over swing voters in 2022. While the GOP largely focused on the three-pronged message of combatting rising inflation, crime, and the flow of migrants over the southern border, exit polls showed that abortion was a top priority for voters at the ballot box. Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel has attributed some of the party’s losses to candidates ignoring the issue. “It was probably a bigger factor than a lot of people thought,” McDaniel said in an interview earlier this month with radio talk show host John Catsimatidis. “We’ve got to get conversant on that.” “We can’t just do an ostrich method and pretend that it doesn’t exist when Democrats are spending $30 million on that message.” According to exit polling, 27 percent of voters said that abortion was the most important issue in deciding their vote, coming in only behind inflation at 31 percent.

The issue played a key role in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, where Sen.-elect John Fetterman (D) strongly elevated the issue, particularly in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Thirty-six percent of voters in that state said abortion was their top issue, while 29 percent said inflation. Abortion access proponents were also victorious on a number of ballot measures, with voters in California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont voting in favor of abortion rights. The victories followed the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June, which punted the issue of abortion access back to the states. Republicans in a number of states moved to limit access to the procedure following the ruling, sparking a chain reaction among Democrats calling to protect abortion rights. “The Dobbs decision was not unlike a political earthquake,” said Marilyn Musgrave, the vice president of government affairs at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. “Republicans, in my opinion, could have had a much better response.” An RNC polling memo published in September appeared to foreshadow the difficulty Republicans could face on the issue due to the Dobbs decision, with 80 percent of voters polled saying they were “not pleased” with the Supreme Court’s decision on the matter. However, the memo did encourage Republicans to appeal to the same voters by taking a more middle-of-the-road approach by not taking a hard-line stance on the issue, but rather being open to exceptions to bans. “When comparing a Democrat who supports abortion at any time for any reason, against a Pro-life Republican who supports exceptions for instances of rape, incest, or the life of the mother, the GOP candidate holds a +22 percent advantage,” the memo read. In a separate post-election interview, McDaniel addressed what she said was a hesitancy among many political consultants to encourage their candidates to address abortion attacks head-on.