Jonathan Bernstein: Texas Republican primaries begin test of Trump’s influence

It’s an election year — and Americans will be voting sooner than many people may realize. The first primary election is in Texas on March 1, fewer than two months away. While there will be a handful of important Democratic primaries, the big news is coming on the Republican side for several reasons. For one thing, with Republicans expected to have a good year, their nominees simply matter more, since they’re more likely to be elected and share the power of the majority. For another, one of the things that can stop Republican majorities is the possibility of extremely poor candidates winning nominations in competitive seats. Control of the party is at stake, and that’s currently a lot more of a contentious question on the Republican side. Texas does not feature any of the dramatic contests in which a challenger endorsed by former President Donald Trump is trying to unseat an incumbent Republican.

For that, we’ll have to wait until May, when 13 states choose their nominees. In Idaho (May 19) and Georgia (May 24), Trump-endorsed candidates are taking on sitting Republican governors and, in Georgia, the Republican secretary of state who refused to help the president overturn the 2020 election results, Brad Raffensperger. We can be sure that such challenges will be interpreted as tests of Trump’s influence within the party. But Trump’s clout will get an earlier test in some complicated primaries in Texas, where he has endorsed incumbents. Governor Greg Abbott is being challenged by two even more radical Republicans, former U.S. Representative Allen West of Florida and former State Senator Don Huffines, both of whom are claiming that Abbott is insufficiently conservative. (A few other minor candidates are on the ballot as well, including one named Rick Perry. He’s not the former governor, but his name could attract a few votes anyway). Abbott is favored to win the nomination, but if he falls below 50% on March 1 he’ll be forced into a runoff, and that will surely be looked at as a sign of weakness even if he ultimately prevails.