Jason Villalba: Are Hispanics becoming reliable Republicans?

(Jason Villalba is chief executive of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.) In Ernest Hemingway’s seminal work The Sun Also Rises, a character in the story is asked, “How do you go bankrupt?” The protagonist responds, “Gradually, and then suddenly.” Hemingway’s point was that disruptive change is often inexorably slow, and even unnoticed, until the final act, when suddenly, it is not. The same is true for shifts in our political and economic tectonics. The world that you and I have known and experienced for our entire lives is changing, and no longer at a gradual pace. We’ve reached the rapid, exponential rate, but hardly anyone, including political and business leaders of North Texas, is paying attention. As Texans, we now live in a state where Hispanics comprise over 35% of eligible voters. Despite what you may have heard on the evening news or read on social media, these voters are not beholden to one political party or the other. The conventional wisdom is that Texas Hispanics are more likely than not to vote for political candidates who identify as Democrats, and the historical data certainly bears out the presumption.

Some Hispanics, who are second or third generation, or who are evangelical in their religious affiliation, have politically acculturated in patterns similar to Anglo Texans. As a result, they often vote for candidates who identify as Republicans in the same percentages as non-Hispanic Texas voters. Others, who are new to the country, or who live primarily in urban communities like Dallas, Houston or San Antonio, often maintain their historical predisposition toward more progressive political candidates. With the unique political circumstances that materialized in the 2020 election cycle, Hispanics in certain regions around the county, and in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, subtly shifted toward Republican candidates. Indeed, the national news media has been quick to conclude that Hispanics are trending toward Republican. They point to small shifts among Hispanics in isolated counties around the country, including the RGV, as a harbinger of a Republican swell that is surely coming. According to the Pew Research Center, Joe Biden won 59% of the total U.S. Hispanic vote in 2020. But Donald Trump’s 38% support was a significant gain over the level of Hispanic support for GOP House candidates in 2018, at 25%.