Dems' dreaded deja vu: Another 50-50 Senate

Democrats face a real and uncomfortable possibility after the midterms: two more years of a Senate divided 50-50. After slogging through — and extracting some significant victories from — the longest evenly split Senate in history, Democrats are pushing hard to expand their majority by netting seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But as their list of potential pickups shrinks, they’re staring down a 2023 that may start with another 50-50 chamber: At the moment average polling forecasts exactly that, and POLITICO currently rates control of the chamber a toss-up. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is pulling ahead against his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to the latest polls, while Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s advantage over GOP foe Mehmet Oz has shrunk. And Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is in essentially a dead heat against GOP challenger Adam Laxalt, who has taken a slight lead in recent polls.

The tightening races, and fear of a narrow GOP takeover, are leading to some finger-pointing about the top Senate Democratic super PAC’s performance, particularly in prime potential pick-up states. Asked about the possibility of another Senate locked at 50-50, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) sighed. “Lord … obviously we would prefer it to having less. But we’ll feel like it’s the myth of Sisyphus or something,” he said, referring to the Greek mythological tale of a man doomed to push the same stone around. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, he added, will feel like “I’ve been trying to roll a boulder up the hill, and it’s rolled back on top of me.” In a statement to POLITICO, Schumer said: “This 50/50 Senate was one of the most productive the Senate has ever seen, so if that’s the case again next Congress we’ll aspire for the same.” The New York Democrat indeed managed to secure bipartisan wins on infrastructure, gun safety and microchips on top of two major party-line victories. And he’s transferred from his war chest $1 million each to Barnes and Fetterman. But some party operatives see Senate Majority PAC, the caucus’ main outside group, as contributing to its candidates’ recent stumbles.