Democrats' stunning turnaround

Passion about abortion rights has fueled a stunning turnaround in Democrats’ midterm fortunes. Why it matters: The inflation slowdown and lower gas prices also are big factors. But officials in both parties tell us abortion has animated Democratic engagement like no other issue since President Trump left office. The result: A reset for a party that was defensive and disillusioned before the Supreme Court ruling in June that overturned Roe v. Wade. 75 days from election day, Democrats now have a good chance of keeping the Senate. And keeping the GOP to a narrow win in the House is now a realistic possibility. What’s happening: Abortion has helped drive primary-season triumphs for Democrats both in fundraising and in turnout approaching, and in some cases exceeding, historic 2018 levels.

Now, officials in both parties see signs that it could blunt a red wave of GOP midterm gains that once looked inevitable. Driving the news: Tuesday night's primaries in New York and Florida offer the latest evidence. Democrat Pat Ryan's unexpected victory in a House special election (NY-19) was driven by a message centered on abortion. “Choice was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won," Ryan declared in a post-election victory statement. Ryan's ads focused on protecting abortion rights, while his GOP opponent Marc Molinaro hammered Democrats over the economy and crime. Ryan won by two points in a district Biden carried by the same margin. In Florida's gubernatorial primary, more Democrats showed up to vote (1,513,180) than in 2018 (1,509,960). Given that 2018 was a historically favorable year for Democrats and 2022 recently looked like a Democratic wipeout, the similar level of Democratic engagement is surprising. The big picture: An Axios analysis found that Democratic primary turnout for governors' races increased between 2018 and 2022 in five of the eight states holding contested primaries after June, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision.