Both parties brace for October surprises

Strategists and political observers on both sides of the aisle are bracing for a dreaded October surprise in the final month before Election Day, wary of anything that could upend the political landscape and reshape the outcome of an already volatile midterm cycle. There have already been a handful of unexpected hiccups. Last week, a news report detailed allegations that Georgia Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker paid for his then-girlfriend’s abortion more than a decade ago. That was followed on Wednesday by the news that OPEC and its allies would slash oil production, ushering in an expected rise in gas prices at a critical time for U.S. politics. And there’s still more uncertainty. Fears of a possible economic recession are on the rise, Russian President Vladimir Putin is dramatically escalating his rhetoric against the West amid his country’s war in Ukraine and the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol could release its highly anticipated final report before Election Day.

All told, the late-breaking developments and potential for more to come have made an already unpredictable midterm election year even less predictable. “In ’18 – and a lot of other midterm years – you knew what was going to happen. There was a very consistent throughline,” Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist, said. “You knew a wave was coming. Now, we don’t know. And it’s the cause of much heartburn.” For Republicans — and especially for first-time candidates like Walker — the biggest concern is that any revelation or misstep could sink their prospects in the final weeks before Election Day, Reinish said. Democrats, meanwhile, are at the mercy of an uncertain economic and geopolitical landscape. “For Democrats, if something happens to affect the national mood or the news cycle, it’s going to be a development outside of their control — gas prices, a foreign policy issue, an economic issue,” Reinish said. October surprises — last-minute convulsions in the political environment that can change the course of an election — aren’t anything new. In 2016, just 11 days before the presidential election, former FBI Director James Comey announced that his agency was reopening its investigation into then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server during her tenure as secretary of State. Many Democrats still blame that disclosure, at least in part, for her loss to former President Trump.