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August 11, 2014      11:29 AM

Greenfield: Combs Getting the Numbers Right, Is That Too Difficult?

Given that revenues have already exceeded predicted increases, Comptroller revenue estimate looks to again be dramatically off

In testimony last week before the Legislative Budget Board (LBB) last week, John Heleman, the Chief Revenue Estimator, stated that the Texas economy continues to outpace the growth in the U.S. economy.  Later that week, Comptroller Combs through her spokesperson, Kevin Lyons, stated “there will be at least $232 million more revenue than she officially estimated last year.  One would expect that with an economy growing at a rate twice that of the U.S., state revenue, primarily taxes, would also be substantially improved.  An increase of $232 million is only 0.1 percent of the $200 billion in revenue the state will receive over this biennium.

The attached analysis will show that while tax revenue as Mr Heleman stated, “is not growing as fast as the last three fiscal years,” the current rate of growth in tax collections is almost three times greater than the rate in the Comptroller’s current revenue estimate (6.8 percent v. 2.4 percent).  While, the rate of growth in total state revenue is only a little over twice (7.4 percent v. 3.5 percent) the growth rate in the current estimate.

By Stuart Greenfield, Ph.D.