December 10, 2012      3:19 PM
HK: BACK OF THE NAPKIN SPEAKER RACE CALCULATIONS
Does Simpson's challenge change any dynamics?
David Simpson’s formal entry
into the world of Speaker politics promises to make things a little livelier
for journalists over the next month and will certainly coarsen the political
rhetoric in the blogosphere, but beyond that it has little other significance
in the grand scheme of things.
let’s stipulate that David Simpson is a serious person who surprised many with
his upset win over Tommy Merritt in
2010. He did it by knocking on doors and
tapping an anti-incumbent sentiment with a constitutionalist message that
resonated against a lawmaker who seemed unaware that the firmament had
shifted. He further capitalized on that
sentiment with his anti-pat down bill last session that transformed him into a
cause celebre’ in the Tea Party subset of Republican voters. His most important
political skill is relentless persistence demonstrated in both his campaign as
well as in endless cornering of members to lobby for his bill last session.
Simpson’s speaker play is not fueled by a partisan shift in the House as was
the transition from Pete Laney to Tom Craddick. Nor is it fueled by any broad based
dissatisfaction by lawmakers with Joe
Straus as was the Republican lead insurrection that deposed Tom Craddick.
Simpson’s primary constituency is the manufactured outrage industry that exists
outside and independent of the Texas House.
He is an organizing principle and maybe even a
fundraising vehicle for some of the groups.
His celebrity in that universe will be enhanced by his quixotic
challenge of Straus, but the chances of success are …remote at best.
is the back of the napkin math: