July 30, 2010      5:22 PM

FULLY A THIRD OF SCHOOL CAMPUSES GET AN ACCOUNTABILITY RATINGS BUMP FROM TEXAS PROJECTION MEASURE

House Pub Ed Chairman Rob Eissler says the growth projection measure appears "a masking agent" for school district performance

Education Commissioner Robert Scott focused on the validity and accuracy of the state’s new projection measure at a news conference this afternoon, but his agency’s own data shows the use of the Texas Projection Measure has skewed the state’s current accountability system almost beyond recognition.

The effects of the measure, once predicted to be moderate, are overwhelming. A third of the state’s campuses – 2,728 out of 7,663 schools – owe their rating to TPM, a statistical regression model that gives schools credit if it can predict, with some certainty, that failing students will pass the high-stakes Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills years into the future.

Scott noted, in his defense of TPM, that the fraction of schools that failed to meet the state’s Academically Acceptable rating would agree the current system still has rigor. He added that exceptions can only bump, or “gate up,” schools by one ratings category. And Scott insisted, rather vigorously, that school districts that use TPM were not given a pass on providing appropriate student interventions.

By Kimberly Reeves

July 30, 2010      4:10 PM

WHITE CLAIMS THAT PERRY CUT CORNERS IN GIVING ENTERPRISE FUND MONEY TO SINO SWEARINGEN

An investor in Sino Swearingen, Doug Jaffe, was business partner to the man who purchased Perry's lakeside lot in Horseshoe Bay for $1.15 million

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill White today said that the Governor’s Office could provide no documents showing that they did a proper vetting of Sino Swearingen Aircraft Corp’s application for $2.5 million from the Texas Enterprise Fund. White said the lack of documents showed that the Governor “cut corners” in awarding the grant (the award was announced in 2006) and implied a connection between the grant and the purchase of Gov. Perry’s Horseshoe Bay lakeside lot a year later by a business partner of a Sino Swearingen investor.

And while he could provide no tangible proof of a quid pro quo at this afternoon’s press conference (“If you’re saying, do we have tape recordings? No,” White said), he said that at the very least, someone should be looking at how the state awards money from the TEF. “I’m calling today, once again, for an independent audit of each of the loans of the Texas Enterprise Fund,” White said.

By John Reynolds

Bill White

July 30, 2010      10:49 AM

CLARIFICATION ON YESTERDAY’S JOHN SHARP POST: STILL INTENDS TO RUN WHEN TIME IS RIGHT

Announced five months ago that he was suspending campaign

Yesterday’s story left the impression that John Sharp had ended his campaign for Senate. Actually, nothing has changed. Five months ago, he announced that he was suspending his efforts until the seat was open and that there was no point spending money in the meantime. But he says he fully intends to run.

July 29, 2010      9:07 PM

GAUNTLET THROWN ON ARIZONA STYLE LAW?

Patrick and Gallegos sparring may set tone for session to come

Sen. Dan Patrick’s office is highlighting an exchange between Patrick and his Democratic counterpart, Mario Gallegos Jr., this morning at Houston’s Fox television affiliate on the prospects of an immigration bill next session akin to what was recently passed in Arizona. Interesting for sure that Patrick raises the possibility of making another exception to the Senate’s traditional two-thirds rule, this time for immigration legislation. If anything, the exchange points to how high Texas lawmakers on both sides of the aisle see the stakes on the issue.

Here’s the excerpt circulated by Patrick’s office:

Gallegos: “Number one we have 12 votes to block in the Senate and that’s a fact.”

Patrick: “Are the Democrats going to lock down and block any law, is that what you are saying today you have already made a decision to block any bill that protects Texas citizens?”

July 28, 2010      3:31 PM

NCSL: POLLSTERS REPORT BOTH PARTIES IN PERIL TO ANTI-INCUMBENT SENTIMENT

Voter intensity with GOP but Obama's numbers could improve as he builds record

LOUISVILLE, KY. – Nearly six in 10 Americans would rather have a new person in Congress than re-elect the incumbent but Republicans who hope to take advantage of the anti-incumbent national mood must also be aware that voter discontent cuts across the partisan divide. Also, the recent controversy over Arizona’s new immigration law is leading to an erosion of Hispanic support for the GOP, complicating Republican chances for winning elections over the long-term.

Overall, the mood of the electorate across the nation is one of anxiety, spurred mainly by concerns about the state of the economy, according to two pollsters who presented their takes on the national mood this morning at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Democratic pollster Peter Hart said that at the outset of President Obama’s term, the wrong track/right track split was 44 percent to 41 percent. By June, the split between those who think the country was on the wrong track and those who think it’s on the right track had widened to 62 percent to 29 percent.

By John Reynolds

July 28, 2010      2:56 PM

WENTWORTH SAYS HIS DEAL WITH A&M WILL PROBABLY BE DONE SOON

Still anticipates resigning after the election

LOUISVILLE, Ky- Sen. Jeff Wentworth, as has been reported here and elsewhere, looks more and more likely to be gone as soon as Election Day comes on Nov. 2.

Passed in the convention center at the National Conference of State Legislatures in Louisville this afternoon, a relaxed Wentworth sounded fairly confident that his ongoing negotiations with the Texas A&M University system would put him out of the running to start his seventh term in the Texas Senate come January.

July 28, 2010      2:48 PM

JUDGE BLOCKS KEY ELEMENTS OF ARIZONA LAW

"...the injunction would apply to the portion of the state law that requires police to try to determine the immigration status of a person they arrest, stop or detain while enforcing other laws if they reasonably suspect the person is in the United States illegally."

The Washington Post story.

July 28, 2010      2:42 PM

BIRDWELL STATEMENT ON ALLEGATION OF VOTING TWICE IN 2004

Says it appears Tarrant County confused him with his brother

have never, ever voted twice in the same election, and that charge is particularly offensive to a soldier who holds the voting process as honored and sacred.  Basically, this news story would have people believe that on Election Day in 2004, I voted in Virginia, then got on a plane and flew to Texas so I could cast a second vote for George W. Bush.  I did not.

“The reports mention that my full name is Brian Douglas Birdwell, and my brother’s name, which appeared right after mine on the voter roll inTarrant County, is Douglas Todd Birdwell.   Because of the similarity of our names, I believe there was an incorrect coding of which brother actually voted in person in Texas on November 2, 2004.   My brother knows that he did vote in the general election in 2004 but the reports indicate that he did not.

“The truth is that, despite the implication that today’s story presents ‘new’ information, this false claim concerning my voting record was presented to the Texas Secretary of State nearly four months ago when my candidacy was initially challenged, then certified. The allegation was false then and it's false now.”

July 28, 2010      10:10 AM

WASHINGTON POST MOVES TEXAS GOVERNOR RACE TO TOSS UP STATUS

Brief blurb cites White' cash on hand and close polling

From the Washington Post's piece in The Fix:

July 28, 2010      10:05 AM

RACE TO TOP FUNDS SPURRING QUIET REVOLUTION IN EDUCATION SAYS ARNE

48 States join in state led common standards

Secretary of Education Arne Duncan had high praise for the 19 finalists in the second round of Race to the Top yesterday afternoon, saying those who applied for the competitive grant program had pushed education innovation further, and faster, than anyone in the Obama administration might have imagined a year ago.

Texas refused to pursue Race to the Top or the Common Core math and English curriculum standards. Last January, Gov. Rick Perry said it would be foolish to put the future of the state’s education reform in the hands of unelected bureaucrats. Education Commissioner Robert Scott said a one-time payment from the federal government would put mandates on Texas that would last decades.

Duncan, in a speech at the National Press Club yesterday, said Race to the Top had created a quiet revolution in education reform. States around the country, regardless of the results of the grant awards, had created road maps for the future.

By Kimberly Reeves

July 28, 2010      9:52 AM

NCSL: UNCERTAINTY WEIGHS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

Stimulus stopped hemorrhaging, changed business attitudes says Federal Reserve economist

LOUISVILLE, Ky - Numbers on unemployment and economic growth have started to turn in the first two quarters of the year, but economist William Strauss expects at least two more years of slack spending before a full economic turnaround.


Strauss, out of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has addressed about 100 business groups a year the last three years, taking the pulse on leading companies’ interest in spending and expansion. While new numbers in job growth are encouraging, especially out of the manufacturing sector, Strauss said companies and lenders are still holding onto money they could invest in the economy.

“We’re showing a moderate path for economic growth,” Strauss said. “It’s very much like a tennis ball. The harder you throw it, the higher it should bounce back. Right now, we should be expecting growth rates in excess of 6 percent. We’ve got growth that’s about half of that.”

By Kimberly Reeves

July 28, 2010      9:06 AM

COLEMAN RESPONDS TO NCSL DOWNBEAT DEMO FORECAST

"No one ever thought Texas House Democrats could get this close."

State Rep. Garnet Coleman (D-Houston) provides this counterpoint to our post from yesterday afternoon in which NCSL’s Tim Storey said that the chances of a Democratic takeover in the Texas House and the Kentucky Senate were “close on paper, but those are probably difficult for Democrats.” The R’s have a 77-73 advantage currently in the Texas House.

“We are still moving forward on the path to victory,” Coleman told QR. “People are always declaring Democrats dead and then we surprise them. No one ever thought Texas House Democrats could get this close. Remember, the campaign has not fully started.”

In addition to his duties at the statehouse, Coleman is a board member of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. That national group works to advance Democratic candidates in the statehouses and is the legislative equivalent of the Democratic Governors Association.

July 28, 2010      8:31 AM

NEW BILL WHITE INTERNET AD-- RICK PERRY: CASH FOR FAVORS

Reprises TV and print reports on Horseshoe Bay land deal

July 27, 2010      4:22 PM

NCSL: STATE HOUSE ELECTION GURU PAINTS GRIM PICTURE FOR DEMS

Current enthusiasm gap has big potential ramifications for redistricting next year

LOUISVILLE, KY. – It’s generally thought that Democrats during these midterm elections are facing a steep uphill climb or leaning into a stiff headwind or whatever other adverse sounding cliché pops to mind. But with less than 100 days to Election Day, the question nagging all involved parties is, how bad could it get?

Tim Storey, the statehouse elections guru at the National Conference of State Legislatures, must be a great teller of ghost stories because he came up with a nightmare scenario at a panel talk this afternoon on the midterm elections guaranteed to frighten the socks off any Democrat.

By John Reynolds

July 27, 2010      3:40 PM

NCSL: UNCLEAR WHO WINS AFTER CITZENS UNITED SUPREME COURT DECISION

"...the decision upheld disclosure requirements and corporations are still shy about putting their names on those ads"

LOUISVILLE, KY. – Six months after the blockbuster Citizens United decision – which OK’d corporate independent expenditures in elections – states are rushing to align their laws with the Supreme Court ruling.

Less clear is the long-term implications of the ruling. The Court left intact prohibitions on direct contributions by corporations to candidates but allowed for all sorts of scenarios under which corporate money can find their way into elections. A trio of election law experts tried to hash out those scenarios this afternoon at a panel discussion at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

The initial reaction to the ruling from politicians on the left was that Citizens United would clear the path for Corporate America to dominate elections. But Kenneth Gross of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher and Flom said it’s far from clear as to who the immediate winners are. So far, he said unions have been spending more than corporations.

“It’s been sort of a wash,” he said. “I don’t see a political winner yet on Citizens United.”

By John Reynolds

July 27, 2010      3:34 PM

NCSL: TEXAS-CENTRIC TALES

Parliamentarian smackdown and celebrating next NCSL in San Antonio

LOUISVILLE, KY. – A couple of Texas-centric odds and ends from NCSL

--- Many different kinds of wonks work in the typical Legislature. There are policy wonks, political wonks and then that most rarified breed, the procedure wonk. This morning at the National Conference of State Legislatures, those procedure wonks got to strut their stuff, answering queries like:

“When an appeal is made from a ruling of a presiding officer, is the question to put to a vote to sustain the appeal or the ruling?”

Or whether this statement is true or false, “On rare occasions, the casting vote has been given to a presiding officer who is a regular member who may first vote as a member and then may vote against to break a tie.”

By John Reynolds

July 27, 2010      3:22 PM

NCSL: NUTS AND BOLTS ON BENDING THE HEALTH CARE COST CURVE

Ideas range from bundling payments per disease to eliminating payment to hospitals for preventable events

LOUISVILLE, KY. – The underlying thought behind health care reform has been that bringing more Americans into the tent of the insured should allow more people to get coordinated care instead of on an ad hoc basis at the local ER. The thinking is that in turn that would lead to lower health care costs.

But for the time being, it’s not at all clear exactly how that will work out in the real world. This morning at the National Conference of State Legislatures, lawmakers and health analysts shared ideas on how to “bend the cost curve.”

Massachusetts state Sen. Richard T. Moore defended his state’s visible attempts to expand access to care. While that state has lowered the medically uninsured rate to the 2.6 percent range, some critics have chided Massachusetts for not focusing enough on cutting costs. Moore said it was “a wild exaggeration” to say that. “We did a great deal to contain costs,” he said, pointing to initiatives like smoking cessation programs that are already yielding savings.

He added that the next iteration of reform in Massachusetts would take a closer look at end of life care. He said the cost of care during the last six months of life in Boston was often more expensive than comparable cities and the quality of care was usually not as good, to boot. He said his state was planning to release recommendations soon on what can be done to manage care better during end of life.

By John Reynolds

July 27, 2010      3:20 PM

SBOE MOVE TO FINANCE CHARTER SCHOOL FACILITIES REIGNITES LEGISLATIVE REACTION

Howard seeks to create non-ideological investment fund; Bradley responds

Rep. Donna Howard promised to re-file her bill next session to give voters the chance to turn the management of the state’s $22 billion Permanent School Fund over to an appointed investment council.

The State Board of Education, of course, currently manages the fund.  Last session, Howard’s HJR 77 carried Chair Rep. Rob Eissler (R-The Woodlands) as a co-author and passed out of committee on a unanimous vote. It passed out of the House at the end of April with just over 100 votes but never made it through the Senate committee.

Howard, the former Eanes school board member, one-time State Board of Education candidate and two-term House Democrat, has not been shy about her desire to rein in the board. Member David Bradley, godfather of the board’s current conservative bloc and chair of the committee over the PSF, called Howard’s numerous SBOE-related bills sour grapes. Howard brushes Bradley’s criticism aside.

By Kimberly Reeves

July 27, 2010      2:55 PM

PHILLIP MARTIN: RICK PERRY WILL BE A DRAG ON THE REPUBLICAN TICKET

The ever provocative Phillip Martin makes an interesting and controversial argument about the November election.

Phillip Martin is a Communications Specialist for the Texas Democratic Trust and a longtime contributor to the Texas political blog, Burnt Orange Report.

Rick Perry’s hopes to win this November rest on his ability to convince enough voters that protesting Washington is more important than solving problems he’s created here at home. Perry’s anti-Washington propaganda is an obvious attempt by a twenty-five year career politician to distract voters from the fact that – under Perry’s watch – state debt has doubled, state spending has nearly doubled, and the state of Texas is facing a potential $18 billion budget deficit.

Perry’s rhetoric-over-reality performance played well against Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary, but Perry has hit a brick wall running against Democrat Bill White. As University of Texas professor Jim Henson told the Austin American-Statesman recently, “I haven’t seen Perry lose this many news cycles since he’s been Governor.” Last week’s fundraising numbers were no help to Perry, either, with White showing a $3 million cash-on-hand advantage over Perry.

Bill White is giving Rick Perry the race of his political life and that gives down-ballot Republicans reason to be afraid for theirs. There are three key reasons why Rick Perry will be a drag on the Republican ticket: Democrats have built straight-ticket advantages over Republicans that a competitive race atop the ticket can exploit; Perry’s anti-Washington message is useless in down-ballot races; there’s no precedent, even in 1994, of any national political wave affecting Texas.

The rest of Phillip Martin's column can be found in today's R&D Department.

July 27, 2010      2:50 PM

BILL WHITE RUNS NEW TV AD IN SAN ANTONIO

Talks about investing in the future

July 26, 2010      5:09 PM

TEXAS ENERGY REPORT: BP REJECTS TEXAS REQUEST FOR $25M

July 26, 2010      5:06 PM

NCSL: WHILE BUDGET SITUATION REMAINS DIRE, SMALL REVENUE IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEGUN

Bad news, states are $83.9B in the hole for next year; Good news? Its better than $174B shortfall last year

LOUISVILLE, KY. – The states’ fiscal picture is slowly brightening after several dismal years although budget gaps will continue to persist for at least the next few years. The reason for optimism? Evidence is emerging that declines in state revenue are either starting to moderate or reverse.

The states face a collective budget gap of $83.9 billion next fiscal year, according to the most recent data from the National Conference of State Legislatures. The new figure represents information obtained from state fiscal directors in late June and early July and reflects an improvement from the spring when NCSL forecast an $89 billion budget gap.

State fiscal directors, though, said they expect significant budget gaps in the out years, which NCSL analysts attribute to the disappearance of federal stimulus funds as well as continued spending pressures. In fiscal year 2012, the states project a $72 billion collective gap. The shortfall drops slightly to a projected $64 billion in the following fiscal year.

The most immediate fiscal pressure on the states is the stalled effort in Congress to extend by six months an enhanced match on federal Medicaid aid to the states, commonly referred to as FMAP. The original enhancement of the matching money was included in the federal economic stimulus package. NCSL estimates that failure to extend the FMAP enhanced match will add $12.3 billion to the collective budget gap for next year.

By John Reynolds

July 26, 2010      4:57 PM

NCSL: PELOSI URGES LEGISLATORS TO PRESSURE GOP SENATORS FOR FMAP REAUTHORIZATION

McConnell warns of free money

LOUISVILLE, KY. – Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi asked state lawmakers attending the National Conference of State Legislatures for their help in pressuring GOP Senators to vote for a six-month extension of additional federal Medicaid aid to the states.

An extension of the enhanced federal match on Medicaid money sent to the states, commonly referred to as FMAP, is something on which most state legislatures can agree. Pelosi said that 30 states have budgets already incorporating the better match rate under the assumption that Congress will act.

The extension is currently on hold because Democrats have been unable to round up the 60 votes necessary to clear procedural hurdles to bring the bill up for a vote. Republicans have been opposed to the FMAP extension, saying Democrats haven’t come up with a good way to pay for it.

Texas lawmakers are watching the debate on FMAP closely. Texas stands to lose roughly $1 billion if the FMAP extension fails, something that would increase next year's budget shortfall that is already estimated at $18 billion.

By John Reynolds

July 25, 2010      5:28 PM

NCSL: LAWMAKERS TOLD THAT TO CONTROL THEIR STATE'S HEALTHCARE REFORM, THEY MUST BEGIN IMMEDIATELY

If a state starts work close to 2010, “(the exchange is) done by you,” she said. Wait a year or two, “it’s done with you.” Wait until the final year before implementation, she said, and “it’s done to you.”

LOUISVILLE, KY. – The clock is ticking for states to begin the process of implementing the changes called for under national health care reform. That was the message sounded again and again by lawmakers and state health administrators during a daylong health summit at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

The year 2014 is the big year for implementing the biggest change called for by health care reform – the establishment of the health insurance exchanges that will allow for the seamless sign up of uninsured citizens for either Medicaid or for subsidized offerings from private insurers.

While that year might seem far off, representatives from Massachusetts and Utah – the only states so far to establish an insurance exchange – warned participants that the process of setting up an exchange would take up much of the intervening time. To wait for the results of a governor’s election in the fall before beginning work would be to wait too long, they said.

Cheryl Smith, who helped set up Utah’s exchange, said that based on her states’ experience, it takes at least two legislative sessions to start up the exchange – one for authorizing language and a second session for corrective measures. “Do not wait,” she said. “Let that work begin now.”

By John Reynolds

July 23, 2010      5:54 PM

SD22 COUNTY CHAIRMAN UNANIMOUSLY CHOOSE BRIAN BIRDWELL FOR NOVEMBER BALLOT

Whether Democrats will challenge eligibility remains an open question

The Republican Party of Texas just issued a press release announcing that Senator Brian Birdwell was the unanimous choice of the eight GOP county chairs for the SD22 November ballot. 

From the release:

By a vote of 8-0, state Sen. Brian Birdwell has been nominated by the Senate District 22 executive committee to appear as the Republican Party's nominee on the November ballot.  Republican Party of Texas Chairman Steve Munisteri called Friday's meeting in Waco. 

By Harvey Kronberg

Senator Brian Birdwell

July 23, 2010      5:50 PM

PRESS RELEASE SECTION HEADLINES

Sharp elbows in the Governor's race and

BW: RICK PERRY'S SAN ANTONIO SECRET

RP: PASADENA POLICE OFFICER’S UNION PAC ENDORSES GOV. PERRY FOR RE-ELECTION

RP: ICYMI: “ONE-FOURTH OF WHITE'S CAMPAIGN DOLLARS FROM D.C.”

UNEMPLOYED TEXANS WILL BE PAID BENEFITS FOR PAST WEEKS LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED WILL BE ELIGIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL WEEKS OF BENEFITS

July 23, 2010      5:17 PM

KXAN REPORTING REP. DUKES SUED OVER CREDIT CARD BILLS

Lawsuit claims two deficiencies totaling $32K, Dukes says actual deficiencies closer to $10K

The KXAN story can be found here.

July 23, 2010      4:22 PM

WITH STATE REVENUES LAGGING BEHIND PROJECTIONS, WILL STATE BE ABLE TO COVER TRAN PAYMENTS?

Comptroller is confident she will have $2.75B needed for July and August payments but can borrow from dedicated funds and Rainy Day fund if necessary

Sales tax collections have shown some signs of rebounding in recent months, but the theme this year when talking about state finances has been an impending revenue shortfall. House budget writers this spring talked about revenue shortfalls in the $3 billion to $4 billion range (as opposed to the anticipated $18b budget shortfall in the next biennium), a development that complicates lawmakers’ job next year when they write the budget.

In recent days, there’s been a little bit of buzz that lagging revenue could produce a more immediate effect. Every year, the state borrows several billion dollars to smooth out a peculiarity in how the state pays for public education. Expenses for public ed tend to be frontloaded in the school year while the tax revenue arrives in the latter part of the school year. Every August the state takes out what are known as Tax and Revenue Anticipation Notes (TRANs), short-term debt that helps the state manage cash flow.

The state owes two more payments on this year’s TRAN series – a $1.375 billion payment on July 30 and another $1.375 billion payment on Aug. 24.

When it took out the TRANs last year, the Comptroller projected that the state would run a $2.1 billion cash balance at the end of this fiscal year. But with revenue lagging consistently behind forecast through much of the year, a few observers who closely follow revenue matters doubt the original cash projection will hold.

The question, then, is what happens if the state doesn’t have the necessary cash flow to pay off the TRAN series.

By John Reynolds

July 23, 2010      12:05 PM

WFAA REPORTS FORMER GOVERNOR BILL CLEMENTS RECOVERING FROM STROKE

93 year old former Governor suffered stroke last month

The WFAA story can be found here.

July 23, 2010      11:46 AM

SBOE REVERSES POSITION ON CHARTER SCHOOL FACILITIES FUNDING WITHIN PSF ALLOCATION, LIKELY DRAWING IRE OF LAWMAKERS

Agosto mysteriously absent from the 7-6 vote, strategy would be contingent on AG opinion or legislative authority.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This post has been revised and expanded from the original version.

The State Board of Education moved forward with the possibility of a landlord-lessee arrangement between the Permanent School Fund and charter schools in a final vote on investment strategies this morning.

The strategy would move $100 million out of the $22 billion Permanent School Fund to underwrite charter school facilities. Despite warnings from state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas) not to move forward with action on the measure and some concerns expressed by outside counsel, SBOE chose to tentatively include charter school facilities as part of its real estate portfolio. David Bradley, who championed the motion, called it “a matter of being fair” to charter schools, which don’t benefit from the state’s guaranteed bond program.

West is not simply a ranking Democrat on the Senate Education Committee. He’s also an attorney who serves as bond counsel to a number of public-sector clients.

Bradley was joined in his support for charter school facilities funding by the conservative bloc, including outgoing SBOE member Cynthia Dunbar, who said the decision was financially prudent, would have due diligence and would meet the mission and vision of the board to support public education. She said the allocation mix that included the charter school facilities showed the highest rate of return with the lowest risk.

By Kimberly Reeves