May 25, 2017      6:20 PM

Greenfield: Two Thirds Through FY17 and Expenditures Still Declining

Our resident number cruncher Dr. Stuart Greenfield says so far this FY, Texas has experienced the “best” of all possible fiscal worlds, tax collections increasing at a rate on estimate, while expenditures are declining

Through May 2017 all funds state expenditures have decreased by 1.9 percent.  As shown in Figure 1, this rate is markedly less than the 7.7 percent increase in FY16.  This rate of decline would be the greatest decrease in state expenditures this century.

Even with the 1.9 percent decrease in all funds expenditures for FY17, total all funds expenditures for FY16-17 should total $227.3 billion, a 10.3 percent increase from FY14-15.  The LBB has projected that House all funds appropriations are $216.3, while Senate appropriations are $213.7 billion for FY18-19.  Assume the conferees split the difference and CSSB 1 appropriates $215.0 billion for FY18-19.  A $215.0 billion appropriations would result in a $12.1 billion (5.3 percent) reduction in expenditures from FY16-17.

The complete column by Dr. Stuart Greenfield can be read in the R&D Department.

By Dr. Stuart Greenfield

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